Modelling COVID-19 Transmission and Viral Mutation Dynamics in India

DOI

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Published In

Year 2026 · Volume 1 · Issue 2

Published Online

May-August 2026

Pages

62-69

Article Type

Review Article

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Indeed, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been among the most impactful events in recent public health history. It swept through 216 countries and claimed more than 590 million confirmed infections and 6.4 million fatalities before achieving a full scientific understanding of the virus itself. With great genetic agility, the virus adapted through constant evolution, facilitated by replication in billions of human hosts, with surviving strains showing increased transmissibility and efficiency in completing the infection cycle. Sometimes, these mutations manifested as moderate-to-severe symptoms due to the interaction between a high viral load and the host's immune system.A distinctive feature of SARS-CoV-2 is the fact that its evolutionary fitness is constantly changing due to mutations within its genome. Similar to many RNA viruses, SARS-CoV-2 makes numerous replication mistakes, leading to the formation of various genetic strains. Some viral lineages were defined as variants of concern by global health bodies if they showed signs of increased transmissibility, higher mortality, resistance to immunisation, and/or reduced vaccine efficacy. Fivevariants of concern were officially recognised by the WHO by the end of 2021. They are known as Alpha (UK, late 2020), Beta (South Africa, December 2020), Gamma (Brazil, January 2021), Delta (India, December 2020) and Omicron (South Africa, November 2021). However, the delta variant was specifically relevant for India, since it became the main driver behind the second wave of the coronavirus outbreak in the country.